Donald Trump և The World Economy

Donald Trump was elected the 45th President of the United States in 2016. On November 8, և it is announced that he will assume his duties as President of the United States in 2016. On January 20. US President-elect Donald Trump has proposed new policies for governing the government. , which have aroused interest among global investors. Experts believe that this policy could be costly, not only for the United States but for the global economy as a whole. Most importantly, the global trade scenario is changing dramatically under his leadership. However, its domestic policy can boost Global, at least in the short term.
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Donald Trump will be President of the United States only in early 2017, so the current short-term market response stems mainly from the policy forecast and expected changes. After taking office, he plans to pursue an expansionary fiscal policy (increasing spending, especially on defense) infrastructure), reducing debt limits, and drastically reducing taxes (mainly by gaining larger corporations). This fiscal stimulus may well boost US economic growth, at least in the short run, along with inflation. However, as tax revenues decrease and expenditures increase, the government budget deficit is expected to increase if such reforms increase tax collection. This will act as a barrier to growth և employment in the US, և will significantly increase inflation when the economy reaches the full employment mark.
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A number of Trump-proposed policies have different implications for the world’s economies. From completely undermining the ability to tackle climate change or global warming to the spread of xenophobia, the most striking, however, remains its defensive agenda to global trade.
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Its motives for imposing tariffs on US imports from emerging economies, particularly China and Mexico, and labeling China a currency manipulator, could negatively affect world trade. Most importantly, his stance on withdrawing the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a signal to the “anti-globalization” movement. These factors, combined with his remarks on measures to “disrupt trade” and lay off migrant workers, pose a huge threat to the World Trade War, which could easily lead to a global recession.
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The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which culminated in late 2015 after years of negotiations with the trading leaders of 12 countries on the Pacific coast, with the exception of China, aims to resolve trade issues between the countries involved. The agreement seeks to remove more than 18,000 barriers to trade between member states by concluding the largest free trade agreement (FTA) in the United States by trade flows. Any amendment to this agreement could prompt other states to impose higher tariffs in return or to impose more barriers.

Barclays chief US economist Michael Gapen predicts that pursuing this policy next year could lead to 0.5% to 1% economic growth in the US. For the world economy, if these trade arms of “anti-globalization” are followed by other nations, it could further increase the risk of trade wars, and, ultimately, a global downturn. The first half of 2017 will be crucial, “the whole world will follow the United States”, in particular, Donald Trump for his next steps.